A Week of Contrasts: Outflows, Rumors, and Surprise Buys

Outflows from spot BTC ETFs continued throughout the week (SoSoValue, Farside).

BlackRock regularly transferred client Bitcoins to exchanges for liquidation. Adding to the pressure, $10 billion worth of options expired on Friday. On the bullish side, Metaplanet acquired another 5,075 BTC, bringing their total holdings to 40,177 BTC. Meanwhile, Samson Mow (CEO of JAN3) claimed that Strategy secretly sold 25,000 BTC via an OTC deal.

Current Prices: BTC ~$60,000–62,000 | AAVE ~$86 | XRP ~$1.14

Macroeconomics: Fed in the Spotlight

For the first time since 2023, the majority of economists are forecasting a Fed rate hike rather than a cut (RTRS poll). Bank of America expects three hikes, while Deutsche Bank anticipates two.

• Weekly Data: GDP came in at +2.1% (vs. 1.6% forecast), and jobless claims dropped to 215k. However, durable goods orders plunged by 4.5%—a clear sign of an economic slowdown.

Traditional Markets: Gold Drops, SpaceX Loses Billions

• S&P 500: Barclays raised its price target to 7,800.

• Gold: Down ~25% from its peak, with ETF outflows persisting since the beginning of the year.

• SpaceX: Erased $600 billion in market cap in just three days.

• FedEx: Posted strong earnings (+13% revenue growth).

Current Prices: SPX ~7,400 | XAU ~$4,200

Altcoins & Ecosystems: AAVE, XRP, Polymarket

• AAVE: Standard Chartered projects a price target of $3,500 by 2030.

• XRP: Ripple officially launched its RLUSD stablecoin in Japan via SBI.

• ONDO: Rolled out 24/7 tokenized stock trading on Ethereum and BNB Chain.

• Polymarket: Surpassed $1 billion in annualized revenue.

The Bottom Line

While BTC ETF outflows persist, long-term conviction buyers continue to accumulate. Altcoins are showing resilience. Key support levels to watch are $60K for BTC and $85–88 for AAVE. All eyes are now on the upcoming FOMC meeting on July 28–29.