Crypto market cycles: when to buy, hold or sell

More than 90% of crypto investors lose money, and often not because of market conditions, but because of emotions. Some panic and sell the moment prices dip. Others get greedy and forget to lock in profits. And many just keep waiting for the “perfect moment” and miss out entirely. So, what separates winners from losers in the crypto game?

It all comes down to understanding one essential concept: market cycles. In this article, we’ll explore the four key phases of the crypto market cycle and provide practical strategies for each. You’ll also learn how to earn passive income throughout any market condition.

What are cryptocurrency market cycles?

Market cycles refer to repeating patterns in price behaviour over time. These cycles are driven by investor psychology and macroeconomic forces. In crypto, each full cycle typically lasts around four years. Historically, these cycles have been heavily influenced by Bitcoin halvings. However, today global events like inflation, regulations, or major economic shifts play an equally important role.

A typical market cycle includes four phases:

1. Accumulation — the calm before the storm.
2. Bull Market — rapid gains and surging optimism.
3. Distribution — profit-taking and slowing momentum.
4. Bear Market — declining prices and fear-driven sell-offs.

Let’s break each of them down.

Phase 1: Accumulation

This is the quietest, most overlooked phase — and also the one where smart investors thrive. It begins after a bear market, when prices have bottomed out and start stabilizing.

Key signs of accumulation:

▪️Prices move sideways for weeks or months.
▪️Trading volume is low.
▪️Investor sentiment is mostly negative or indifferent.

Here, the best strategy is Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA): buy a fixed amount of crypto regularly, regardless of price. This spreads your entry over time and avoids the trap of trying to time the perfect dip.

Accumulation phases often offer the biggest long-term gains. For example, Solana (SOL) traded near $14 for months in 2022–2023, and then skyrocketed to over $180 in early 2024.

Phase 2: Bull Market

This is where the magic happens. After months of sideways movement, prices suddenly start climbing fast. It’s a time of euphoria, excitement and exponential gains.

Key signs of a bull run:

▪️Strong upward momentum across top coins.
▪️Social media hype and renewed retail interest.
▪️Institutional money entering the market.

BTC usually leads the charge, followed by ETH and then altcoins. The later you enter, the riskier it becomes. It’s essential to set clear targets and increase winning positions, but also know when to step back.

Phase 3: Distribution

In this phase, the market starts cooling off. Smart money begins selling, but the hype is still there, for now. This is your chance to lock in profits before the music stops.

What to watch for:

▪️Flat or slowly declining prices after an all-time high.
▪️Reduced volume.
▪️Early signs of panic or hesitation.

The best move here is to gradually sell your assets, especially altcoins. Historically, Bitcoin forms two peaks about six months apart during this phase, but altcoins rarely repeat their peak performance twice. Exit before the crowd does. Timing the top is hard, but recognising a flattening curve can save your portfolio.

Phase 4: Bear Market

Here comes the pain. Prices drop sharply, sentiment turns negative and news headlines predict the “death of crypto” once again. But this phase isn’t just about fear — it’s about opportunity, too.

What to expect:

▪️Massive sell-offs, often triggered by unexpected events (e.g., exchange bankruptcies, regulations, wars).
▪️Crypto prices dropping 80–95%.
▪️Low trading volumes and low confidence.

The key here is defence. Avoid impulsive buys, preserve your capital and consider moving into stablecoins like USDT or USDC to protect your funds.

How to Earn During Any Market Cycle

While timing the market is tough, earning from your crypto doesn’t have to be. That’s where EXMO Earn comes in.

It’s a passive income program that lets you earn up to 17.5% APY on your crypto, even during the bear market.

Why Earn makes sense:

▪️Fixed terms: 30, 60, 90 or 180 days.
▪️The possibility of Flexible staking without a lockdown period and preserved benefits.
▪️High yields: up to 6% on BTC and ETH, 15% on USDT and USDC.

Final thoughts

Crypto is an emotional rollercoaster. Knowing the rules of the game gives you the edge. Recognise the market phases, follow the strategies for each and stay consistent.

Whether you’re buying the dip or riding the wave, sticking to your plan beats chasing hype every time. And don’t forget — even when markets are flat or falling, your assets can still work for you on EXMO.com.